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April 16, 2012
The Consensus Revenue Estimating Group met April 13 and raised the forecast for state general revenue, but some of that newfound revenue will need to be spent to cover increasing human service caseload costs.
In their estimate, the revenue estimators concluded Kansas will receive $129.4 million more than expected this fiscal year and another $122.8 million more than expected in FY 2013. The increases indicate good news about the Kansas economy. Individuals and corporations are both making and spending more money.
However, on April 11, estimators also completed a new forecast of how much human service caseloads (mostly Medicaid expenses) will cost the state. For the remaining part of FY 2012, the state’s share of caseload costs will be $4.9 million lower than expected, but for FY 2013, $43.8 million in new spending must be added to the budget, mostly to cover Medicaid medical services.
The new revenue estimate totals are plotted above on a State General Fund receipt and expenditure chart. The expenditure totals for FY 2012 and FY 2013 reflect the spending recommended by the recent budget conference committee but do not include the new caseload estimates. (The Legislature has not passed the conference committee recommendations.)
The green receipt line in the chart shows revenues beginning to recover after a very difficult recession. The red spending line illustrates that while expenditures have gone up after the recession, FY 2013 spending will likely still be much the same as it was in FY 2008, five years earlier.