In March 2018, the Kansas Health Institute (KHI) released an updated estimate of Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) enrollment if Kansas were to expand KanCare, its Medicaid program, under the terms of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). There have been questions about how accurate the estimates might be, given experiences in some expansion states where new enrollment exceeded projections.
That KHI estimate projected that expansion would add 145,000 new beneficiaries—including 95,000 adults age 19‒64—to the KanCare rolls. The projection was based on data from the American Community Survey (ACS), administered by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This Fact Sheet illustrates the percentage of adults up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL) who reported being enrolled in Medicaid in 2013, the year before the ACA’s Medicaid expansion, and 2016, the most recent year for which ACS data are available. It also illustrates the percentage of a state’s entire population enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP in 2013 and 2016, and illustrates where KHI’s projection of total beneficiaries would fit within that range.
In these comparisons, KHI’s projection falls in the range of experience of states that have expanded Medicaid.
The Kansas Health Institute (KHI) delivers objective information, conducts credible research, and supports civil dialogue enabling policy leaders to make informed health policy decisions that enhance their effectiveness as champions for a healthier Kansas. Established in 1995 with a multiyear grant from the Kansas Health Foundation, KHI is a nonprofit, nonpartisan educational organization based in Topeka.