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Issue Brief: Projected Costs and Enrollment of Medicaid Expansion in Kansas

Updated Numbers

By Kari M. Bruffett, Cheng-Chung Huang, M.P.H. | November 29, 2016

Issue Brief: Projected Costs and Enrollment of Medicaid Expansion in Kansas

With the election of Donald Trump, the future of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in Kansas and in other states is uncertain. Expansion advocates remain hopeful that the Kansas Legislature will take up the issue, as this year’s elections produced new legislators who had expressed support for expansion.

To provide policymakers with updated information at a time of uncertainty, the Kansas Health Institute (KHI) has released an issue brief entitled, Projected Costs and Enrollment of Medicaid Expansion in Kansas: Updated Numbers, which revises its 2012 estimate of expansion enrollment and costs by taking into account changes that have occurred since the original estimate was released. 

KHI now estimates that if Medicaid were to be expanded in Kansas starting in 2018:

  • Approximately 152,000 Kansans—including 98,000 adults—would enroll in KanCare. About 80,000 potential new enrollees are currently uninsured, while the remaining 71,000 have insurance and would be expected to switch to KanCare.
  • Annually, state costs would start at $68 million and nearly double by the seventh year. The state's share of expansion costs from 2018 to 2024 could total approximately $729.7 million over seven years, or $1.1 billion over 10 years.

The Kansas Health Institute delivers credible information and research enabling policy leaders to make informed health policy decisions that enhance their effectiveness as champions for a healthier Kansas. The Kansas Health Institute is a nonprofit, nonpartisan health policy and research organization based in Topeka, established in 1995 with a multiyear grant from the Kansas Health Foundation.