Kansas Health Institute | Information For Policy Makers. Health for Kansans.

Health reform will mean major changes for the nation's health care system but it won't do enough to curb growing health care costs, according to an article published by Health Affairs, a leading policy journal.

The article, "Assessing Health Reform's Impact on Four Key Groups of Americans," was written by Harvard University professor Joseph P. Newhouse.

It examines health care reform's likely consequences for these groups:

• Those who are uninsured or eligible for Medicaid or the Children's Health Insurance Program;
• Those in the individual or small-group health insurance markets;
• Those in midsize or large-group markets;
• Medicare beneficiaries.

Newhouse concluded two of the four groups would see major gains from the federal reform. Two-thirds of the uninsured population will receive coverage as Medicaid is expanded. And the number of people with individual or small-group insurance could rise to 50 million or more as reform restructures those markets.

But those insured through midsize and large employers could see little benefit for several years, according to the article.

For Medicare beneficiaries, reform will close the drug benefit "doughnut hole" and establish a voluntary, long-term care benefit, but future administrations and Congresses will likely need to address Medicare spending, according to Newhouse.

The reform law calls for cuts in the rate of Medicare growth. If the cuts are carried out, Medicare rates will fall below commercial insurance rates and Medicare beneficiaries will likely face access issues, the author predicted.