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TOPEKA — Kansas is among the more than 30 states that built budgets assuming Congress this year would approve additional federal matching dollars for Medicaid and child welfare programs.

And it is among a dozen or so states that have no contingency plan should that assumption prove wrong.

If Congress doesn't pass the so-called “FMAP extension,” Kansas would find itself with a $131 million hole in the budget that lawmakers just spent months struggling to shape for the fiscal year that begins July 1.

Gov. Mark Parkinson's recommended budget for fiscal 2011 never counted on those millions that were later included in the budget legislation he signed. It was conservative House Republicans who first introduced the assumption into a bill. It was among the things they proposed as the alternative to raising taxes. The idea made its way into the final budget as lawmakers looked for ways to minimize tax increases.

Now that additional federal aid, once thought a near certainty, looks shaky enough that the National Conference of State Legislatures has called it “on the ropes,” and sent a notice marked urgent to its members urging them to lobby Congress to approve the money because of its importance to recession-battered state treasuries.

Today, the group also sent an open letter to U.S. Senate leaders urging them to restore the money. It was accompanied by a report detailing the consequences for the various states, if Congress doesn't.

Counting chickens before the eggs hatch

California counted on getting $1.5 billion; Illinois about $737 million.

But that money, along with the $131 million that would come to Kansas, was stripped Friday from H.R. 4213 because House Democratic leaders otherwise couldn't get it past Republicans and Blue Dog (fiscally conservative) Democrats worried about the legislation's cost. Removing the FMAP money, dollars to extend COBRA health insurance for the unemployed and some other benefits trimmed the bill's pricetag from an estimated $127 billion to $101 billion and won it enough votes to pass.

Kansas Republicans in the U.S. House voted against it anyway.

"The Democrats' tax extenders bill is nothing more than another legislative vehicle Speaker (Nancy) Pelosi can use to permanently raise taxes and borrow more money to fund government programs," said Congressman Todd Tiahrt, explaining his opposition in a statement released following his vote.

The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, criticized the bill for increasing the current 8-cents-per barrel tax that funds the oil spill liability trust fund to 32 cents and for limiting the tax credits U.S. businesses could claim for income taxes paid to other countries, which supporters of the bill characterized as widely abused tax loopholes.

The bill also would change the tax code so that self-employed persons couldn't avoid or minimize employment taxes by channeling income through a subchapter S corporation.

As the bill now stands, it would extend a long list of existing tax credits for individuals and businesses and also the unemployment benefits delivered with passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, also known as the economic stimulus act.

The stripped out FMAP money was part of a planned, six-month, $24 billion extension of special federal aid to states that also started with the stimulus.

Persuading senators

By the time many state budget writers started counting the FMAP egg as hatched, the extension had already been approved in the House and Senate in one bill or another but not in a single bill by both. Now, as Congress has continued to debate the issue, more states than not are counting on the money.

“It really behooves all our members and all state executives to get in touch with their senators,” said Michael Bird, federal affairs counsel for NCSL.

Bird said members of the Senate are scheduled to caucus on the bill Tuesday.

The governor is scheduled to be in Washington, D.C. Monday through Wednesday, according to a spokesperson, and will meet one of those days with Kansans in Congress to urge restoration of the FMAP money. He was among 47 governors of states and territories who signed onto a letter to congressional leaders in February urging approval of the extension. The letter was sent under the auspices of the National Governors Association.

Both U.S. Sens. Pat Roberts and Sam Brownback, Kansas Republicans, voted against the FMAP extension on March 10 when it was included in other legislation.

Brownback, widely considered to be the frontrunner in this year's race to replace Parkinson who is not standing for election, could be expected to deal with the consequences of the fiscal 2011 budget hole if the FMAP extension is not approved and he occupies the governor's chair.

Calls and emails to Brownback's U.S. Senate press office seeking comment about the issue were not returned Thursday.

Meanwhile, Kansas budget officials are watching closely to see what Congress will do.

“It appears to have become shakier than it was,” said Budget Director Duane Goossen, “though I think there's still a lot of debate for Congress by any means. There are a lot of states that have counted it as part of their budget. We are still expecting it will happen and don't know when we will finally know yes or no. It would be better to know that it is coming.”